Too Early Breakdown: I'm Edging

There was this one kid that I went to school with that lived in one of those weirdo sugar-free houses. Kid went 8 years without ever having any sugar. Then at one slumber party a kid’s parents bought pizza and a two liter of Coke and the sugar free dork had some and went the fuck off. Kid was taking his little pee pee out and pissing on stuff, ran into the middle of the cul de sac and did snow angels on the pavement (it was July and there was no snow, just pavement), he stole a dog I think. He went OFF. That’s all this kid could think about, was his sugar. He was an absolute FIEND for it. He kept inviting himself over to people’s houses in order to get some more of that good-good. In the end, we separated ourselves from him. The kid was fucking crazy. He got blackballed by Ms. Shirey’s second grade class.

And every September, I remember that we treated that kid too harshly. 

Every year we get a Thursday season opener, and then we have to wait 2 more days for our full NFL slate. It’s all I want; all I can think about. I’m edging. 

(Good semicolon use, Jake)

These are the best picks for week one. You can punch me in the face. On sight.

Arizona @ Tennessee (TEN -3, O/U 52)

I don’t wanna call it too early, but this might be game of the year. These are two stupidly high-powered offenses with two defenses that I’m not sold on. You can’t get a better endorsement for a good game than that. 

I can’t really bring that much to the table as far as legitimate statistics go since it’s just week one. So take these instead:

1. Arizona’s putting out a super inexperienced defensive backfield.

2. Julio Jones

3. Tennessee ranked 32nd in 3rd down defense last year

4. DeAndre Hopkins

5. JJ Watt is getting old

6. Derrick Henry is not getting old

7. AJ Brown

8. AJ Green

Over 52, you guys.

San Francisco @ Detroit (SF -9, O/U 45)

Give me the under here. Dan Campbell has never coached a real game, and in the preseason he was making some really weird ass calls. This is the kind of guy who’s going to go for it on 4th and 1, convert, then go for it on 4th and 3, fail, then never go for it on 4th downs again. He’ll settle for field goals and they won’t score over 18 points. 

Jimmy G is the 9ers QB and personally, I don’t like him. Too good looking for me. I don’t trust anyone that looks like the Chad meme. 

Shanahan will get up early then pound the ball down Dan Campbell’s throat just to humiliate him. 

SIDE BET: Dan Campbell has a full mental breakdown by week 6 and there are reports that he tries to kill a player with their own helmet. Put it in blood.

Eagles bet:

I wanna start doing an Eagles specific section this year. The Eagles are my team and my life blood. I spend more than 20 hours a week consuming everything I can about the Eagles, and I have gotten pretty good at calling my shots with them. I try my absolute best not to take them when they’re favorites (which is not hard because it’s rare) and I pick my spots when they are dogs. Last year, I went 9-2 on my Eagles plays, so I think I’ve gotten a pretty good handle on them. 

Here’s the deal with this week. The line has dropped down to Eagles +3. I took them at +3.5. If the line get back over 3, ABSOLUTELY take them. They are a match up nightmare for the Falcons in just about every facet. They upgraded their defensive backfield, they got even stronger on the defensive line, they have a defensive coordinator that will actually use linebackers, they have legitimate weapons for receivers, and they have a healthy offensive line (for now). Remember last year? Remember how they had 14 different combinations of starters on the offensive line? Forget that (for now). 

The Falcons are trash. Yeah, they got Kyle Pitts, but historically tight ends have a tough start their rookie season. Yeah, they got Arthur Smith as their head coach, but he’s a rookie head coach too. Everything else about them has either stayed the same, or it’s been downgraded. They stink, baby. 

Take the Eagles +3.5 if you can, otherwise get the fuck out. Go Birds.