Remember when the priest was all like, “The sacrament of reconciliation clears your record of all your sins no matter how heinous” and then you were all like, “Cool. I stole a Snickers from CVS, peed on the toilet seat then blamed it on my brother, shaved my pubes with his beard trimmer, and also recommended that you take Ravens -6.5 against the Patriots in week 10 last year. Please forgive me.” And then the priest was all like, “It’s cool, just chill out in the future.” You remember that? I do.
It’s a new NFL season baby, and we just got our slate wiped clean.
For the next 6 months, we get to watch the best sport on Earth. I cannot wait.
What’ll happen? Will Raheem Mostert continue to do that thing where his body shatters and shreds under his own power and he won’t complete a season again? Will Stephon Diggs get tired of waiting for Top Gun 2 to come out, and take it upon himself to fly through the air and catch some crazy ass passes from his quarterback with an equally crazy ass arm? Did Chase Young watch Godzilla vs. Kong in the off season and hit Dak Prescott so hard he goes through the ground just to prove the Hollow Earth Theory correct? Will Tyreek Hill run so fast he accidentally shows the world that he is an actual superhero, just like Clark Kent didn’t want to do in that one episode of Smallville? Did Robert Saleh find the jar of tears that Adam Gase left for him in the head coach’s office?
The answer is definitely probably, “yes” to all of those questions.
I can go on for HOURS about how excited I am, but you are probably (read: should be) reading this while you’re pooping and I want to keep it short.
The first game we get is Dallas at Tampa Bay on Thursday Night.
Dallas @ Tampa Bay (Tampa -8 O/U 51.5)
I learned two things from Hard Knocks this year:
1. Mike McCarthy is still an idiot.
2. Leighton Vander Esch wants to kill himself in a public space.
The Cowboys defense is still a year or so away from being any type of effective. I’m not saying it’s going to be the “opposing high school put in the kid with Non Hodgkins Lymphoma at running back, we better let him score” defense they had last year, but it’s still going to be rough.
Their offense will be fine. It’s the first game, everyone is moderately healthy besides the COVID scratches (though Zack Martin being out is an INCREDIBLE detriment to the offense’s output). I expect Dallas to go down early, because of said shit defense, and have to try to muscle their way up for air from the get-go. This’ll be an issue, because the only way to beat Tom Brady is to make sure he doesn’t get the ball. That means the Cowboys time of possession will literally be their best and only form of defense. Will that work? Let’s find out in the next paragraph.
But Tampa Bay’s defense is good. Tampa Bay’s defense is REAL good. Last year they were 5th in defensive DVOA (which is a statistic that is a very good measure of effectiveness and I won’t take the time to explain it with my dumb brain, just Google it if you care), and they haven’t changed anything at all. I expect them to get a good pass rush on Dak and keep Zeke’s rushing yards to a fairly insignificant level.
This is gonna be one of those games where Tampa scores 5 times and keeps Dallas out of the end zone for the most part. I think it’ll be a 31-10 game. Maybe Dallas scores late and makes it 31-17. Who cares, I’m taking Tampa -8 (or you can tease it down to -2, through two key numbers).